IDL 101

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IN A CHANGING WORLD

Instructor: Coit D. Blacker

Overview. The course is a team-taught, interdisciplinary survey class covering the most pressing international security problems facing the world today. The course has four main objectives:

1. to teach students alternative social science theories for understanding contemporary international security problems;
2. to provide the basic technical and scientific information needed to understand these problems;
3. to explore the policy options that are available to decision-makers in the U.S. and other states; and
4. to give students the intellectual tools and desire to continue to study international security issues after the course is over.

To successfully pass the course all students are expected to 1) view the lectures (on the CDs); 2) know the reading materials; 3) participate at the seminars; 4) complete the weekly assignments; and 5) pass the midterm and final exams. 

Lectures and reading materials. Viewing the lectures and reading the assigned papers is the most essential part of the course. All enrolled students are therefore expected to view all lectures and read all assigned papers. 

Seminars. The seminars are organized and conducted by the Russian course instructors. The student performance at the seminars will be assessed based on three criteria: attendance, preparedness, and activity.

Assignments. For each week, except the midterm and the final, there will be a group assignment to write a short paper addressing a specific question. To that end, all students must be divided into groups of 3 by their instructors. The assignments will be graded and commented by the Stanford teaching assistants (TA) with one grade for the entire student group and a paragraph of comments.  To submit the assignments and view the results the students must login to the Forum and use the PanFora program. See the rules for submitting the assignments. 

Exams. There will be a midterm exam after the first half of the course. The final exam will be given after the entire course is completed. Both the midterm and the final exams consist of two parts: in-class (short questions) and take-home (longer essay). Stanford teaching assistants will be grading and commenting on the exams. See the rules for submitting the midterm and the final exams. 

Plagiarism and Cheating. Plagiarism is the use of somebody's work as one's own, without quotation marks and references to the original source. Cheating is the use of materials that are not allowed at the exam. No plagiarism or cheating are allowed under any circumstances whatsoever. Click here to read the rules for citation and reference.

Grading. The course grade will be determined by four factors: weekly assignments (30%), seminar participation (20%), mid-term exam (20%), and final exam (30%). All weekly assignments, midterms, and finals will be graded with numbers ranging from 60 to 100. The numbers will be converted into the final grade according to the following rule:

INTRODUCTION

Week 1: September 17-21

 Lecture 1 - Course Introduction

Coit D. Blacker and Scott D. Sagan

• Jack Snyder, "One World, Rival Theories," Foreign Policy, November/December 2004, pp. 53-62.

PART 1: NUCLEAR WEAPONS

 Lecture 2 - Deterrence in Theory and Practice

Scott D. Sagan

• Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1967), ch. 1, pp. 1-34.

• Scott D. Sagan, "The Perils of Proliferation: Organization Theory, Deterrence Theory, and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons," International Security 18:4 (Spring 1994), pp. 66-107.

• Дерилл Хоулетт «Новые концепции политики сдерживания».

Week 2: September 24-28

 Lecture 3 - The ABC's of Nuclear Threats: Audiences, Bargaining, and Commitment

Scott D. Sagan

• Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1967), ch. 2, pp. 35-91.

• Nina Tannenwald, "The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Normative Basis of Nuclear Non-Use", International Organization, 53,3 (Summer 1999), pp. 433-468.

Lecture 4 - The Evolution of U.S. Nuclear Doctrine

Scott D. Sagan

• Scott D. Sagan, Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989), pp. 10-57.

• Денис Мистрюгов  Перспективы доктрины "взаимного гарантированного уничтожения", Обозреватель, Июль  2003 г.

Support material

• U.S. Nuclear Posture Review excerpts (2002). 

• ВОЕННАЯ ДОКТРИНА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ, Независимая газета, 2000-04-22. (http://www.ng.ru/politics/2000-04-22/5_doktrina.html).

 Lecture 5 - The Theory and Practice of Arms Control

Coit D. Blacker

• Thomas C. Schelling and Morton H. Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control (Washington: Pergamon-Brassey's, 1985), pp. 1-39.

• Coit D. Blacker and Gloria Duffy, International Arms Control: Issues and Agreements

(Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University, 1984), pp. 199-276. 

• Д-р Мохамед Аль-Баради «Ядерное нераспространение: возвращаясь к основам», Бюллетень МАГАТЭ 44/2/2002.

Supplemental

• Treaty On The Non-Proliferation Of Nuclear Weapons (1968).

Week 3: October 1-5

Lecture 6 - Making A Nuclear Bomb

Dean Wilkening

• Dietrich Schroeer, Science, Technology, and the Nuclear Arms Race (New York: Wiley, 1984), pp. 14-71.

• История создания, принципы действия ядерного оружия по материалам сайта http://nuclear-weapons.nm.ru/theory/index.htm.

Lecture 7 - The Bush Administration and Grand Strategy

Steve Miller

• Steven E. Miller, "Skepticism Triumphant: The Bush Administration and the Waning of Arms Control." La Revue Internationale et Strategique, 2003

• Ядерное сдерживание и нераспространение, Аналитический доклад под редакцией Алексея Арбатова и Владимира Дворкина, Московский Центр Карнеги, 2005 г, стр. 32-39.

Week 4: October 8-12

Lecture 8 - Preventing Proliferation: Supply Side Approaches

Michael May

• Mohamed ElBaradei, "Towards A Safer World," The Economist, 16 October 2003

•  Chaim Braun and Christopher Chyba, "Proliferation Rings: New Challenges to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime," International Security, Vol. 29 2 (Fall 2004), pp. 5-49.

•  Алексей Арбатов Ядерное сдерживание и ядерное распространение, Стенограмма лекции А.Г. Арбатова, состоявшейся 17 сентября 2003г. в Московском физико-техническом институте для слушателей курса
"Режим нераспространения и сокращения оружия массового поражения и национальная безопасность".

Lecture 9 - Why States Build and Forego Nuclear Weapons

Scott D. Sagan

• Scott D. Sagan, "Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons: Three Models in Search of a Bomb," International Security Vol. 21, No. 3 (Winter 1996/97), pp. 54-86.

• Кондрашов А.В. Глобальное распространение ядерного оружия: политические перспективы и прогнозы // Актуальные проблемы политологии: Сборник научных работ студентов и аспирантов Российского университета дружбы народов. / Отв. ред.: д.ф.н., проф. В.Д. Зотов. – М.: МАКС Пресс, 2001. – С. 170–175.

Lecture 10 - NPT Negotiating Perspectives and Prospects

Thomas Graham, Jr.

• Thomas Graham, Jr., Disarmament Sketches (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2002), pp. 257-293.

• Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия. Проблемы продления (Открытый доклад СВР за 1995 год) (http://svr.gov.ru/material/4-0.html).

Supplemental

• Treaty On The Non-Proliferation Of Nuclear Weapons (1968). 

Week 5: October 15-19

PART 2: TERRORISM

Lecture 11 - Biological Weapons, International Health, & the Challenges of Homeland Defense

Lucy Shapiro

• Judith Miller, Stephen Engelberg, and William J. Broad, Germs: Biological Weapons and America's Secret War (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001), ch. 10 and 12.

• "Зачем России биологическое оружие?" Публикация сайта http://www.arms.ru

Lecture 12 - Why The Department of Homeland Security is Likely to Fail

Charles Perrow

• Amy B. Zegart, "September 11 and the Adaptation Failure of US Intelligence Agencies." International Security Spring 2005, Vol 29:4 78-111.

Lecture 13 - Risk Analysis and Intelligence Failures: A Bayesian Approach

Elisabeth Paté-Cornell

• Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, "Fusion of Intelligence Information: A Bayesian Approach," Risk Analysis Vol. 22 No. 3, 2002. pp. 445-454.

Week 6: October 22-26

Mid-Term Exam

Week 7: October 29 - November 2

Lecture 14 - Mass Casualty Terrorism: Linkage Between WMD Proliferation and WMD Terrorism

• William Perry and Ashton Carter, Preventative Defense, (Brookings Institution Press, 1999) Ch. 4 & 5.

• Владимир Белоус «Ядерный терроризм-попытки уже были», Независимая Газета, 2004-10-08.

Lecture 15 - The Logics of Terrorism

Scott D. Sagan

• Michael Scott Doran, "Somebody Else's Civil War," Foreign Affairs Vol. 81: (January/February 2002), pp. 22-42.

• David A. Lake, "Rational Extremism: Understanding Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century," Dialog-IO (Spring 2002): 15-28.

• Будницкий, О.В. "Терроризм: история и современность," Полемика (10-11), 2001-02, Часть 1.

Lecture 16 - Offensive Strategies in the War on Terror

Col. Reed Sawyer

• Russell D. Howard, "Understanding Al Qaeda's Application of the New Terrorism: The Key to Victory in the Current Campaign," from Terrorism and Counterterrorism, Understanding the New Security Environment, Russell D. Howard and Reid L. Sawyer (eds), McGraw-Hill 2004).

• Barry R. Posen, "The Struggle Against Terrorism: Grand Strategy, Strategy, and Tactics" International Security (Winter 2001/2002), reprinted in Terrorism and Counterterrorism, Understanding the New Security Environment, Russell D. Howard and Reid L. Sawyer (eds), McGraw-Hill 2004).

• «Догоняющее развитие в постиндустриальную эпоху и вызовы традиционного общества: политико-экономические аспекты борьбы с терроризмом», Доклад Института экономики переходного периода.

Week 8: November 5-9

PART 3: RECONSTRUCTION AND INTERVENTION IN CIVIL WARS

Lecture 17 - Intervention: Politics, Ethics, and National Interests

Coit D. Blacker

• Gareth Evans and Mohamed Sahnoun, "The Responsibility to Protect," Foreign Affairs Vol. 81, No. 6 (November/December 2002).

• Coit D. Blacker, "A Typology of Post-Cold War Conflicts," in Arnold Kanter and Linton F. Brooks, eds., U.S. Intervention in the Post-Cold War World: New Challenges and New Responses (New York: W. W. Norton, 1994), pp. 42-62.

• Алексей Богатуров «Современный международный порядок» Международные процессы, Том 1. Номер 1 (1). Январь-апрель 2003.

Lecture 18 - Postmodern Imperialism: The Problem of Weak States in the International System

James D. Fearon

• James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, "Neotrusteeship and the Problem of Weak States," International Security, Vol. 28, Issue 4 (Spring 2004).

• James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Vol. 97 No.1 (February 2003) pp. 75-90.

Week 9: November 12-16

 Lecture 19 - Shared Sovereignty and Statebuilding: Challenges in Theory and Practice

J. Alexander Thier

• J Alexander Thier, "The Politics of Peace-Building: Year One, From Bonn to Kabul," in Nation-building Unraveled?: aid, peace and justice in Afghanistan / edited by Antonio Donini, Norah Niland, and Karin Wermester (Kumarian, 2004).

• Larry Goodson, "Bullets, Ballots, and Poppies in Afghanistan" Journal of Democracy, January 2005.

Lecture 20 - The Costs and Benefits of Autonomous Recovery: Perspectives on Nonintervention

Jeremy Weinstein

• Edward Luttwak, "Give War A Chance," Foreign Affairs, July/August 1999.

• Jeremy Weinstein, "Autonomous Recovery in Comparative Perspective." Working paper.

Lecture 21 - Iraq: Securing Democracy?

Nora Bensahel

• James Fallows, "Blind into Baghdad," The Atlantic Monthly, January/February 2004.

• Larry Diamond, "What Went Wrong in Iraq?" Foreign Affairs, September/October 2004.

• Славой Жижек «Ирак: ложные обещания», Pro et Contra, Том 8, номер 3, 2004, с. 158-163.

Week 10: November 19-23

PART 4: CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Lecture 22 - Future Challenges to International Security: Technology and Future Challenges

William J. Perry

• The White House, "National Security Strategy of the United States of America" (September 2002).

• CБ РФ «Концепция национальной безопасности Российской Федерации», Яварь 2000.

Lecture 23 - International Security in a Changing World? Evaluating the "New" Security Environment

Coit D. Blacker

• G. John Ikenberry, "America's Imperial Ambition," Foreign Affairs Vol.81, No.5 (September/October 2002).

• С. Леонидов "Россия в системе международной безопасности» http://www.nationalsecurity.ru.

• Петер ван Хам "Европа и трансатлантические отношения: туманное будущее", Публикации Центра им. Маршалла, № 4 c. 1-27.

Supplemental

• The White House, "National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction" (2002)

• Военная Доктрина Российской Федерации, Январь 2000.

Lecture 24 - Use of Force and The United Nations in a Changing World

Allen Weiner

• Abraham D. Sofaer, "On the Necessity of Pre-Emption," 15 European Journal of International Law 209 - 226 (2003).

• Lee Feinstein & Anne-Marie Slaughter, "A Duty to Prevent," 83 Foreign Affairs 136 - 150 (2004).

• Тимофей Бордачев «Новый интервенционизм 90-х годов», Pro-et-Contra, Том 3, номер 4, Осень 1998.

Supplemental

• Report of the Secretary General's High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change, "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility," 12/2/2004.

Week 11: November 26 - 30

Lecture 25 - "The War on Terror" and "The Islamic World"

Ambassador Thomas W. Simons

• Samuel Huntington, "The Clash of Civilizations?" Foreign Affairs, Summer 1993.

• Thomas Simons, Islam in a Globalizing World, Ch. 4, pp. 50-69, 91-104.

• Дина  Малышева Мусульманский компонент мировой политики, Pro et Contra • Том 7, № 4, Осень 2002 c. 104-126.

Lecture 26 - China: Conflict and Compromise in a Changing Environment

Susan Shirk

• Alastair Iain Johnston, "Is China a Status Quo Power?" International Security, 27:4 (Spring 2003), 5-56.

• Evan Medeiros and M. Taylor Fravel, "China's New Diplomacy," Foreign Affairs, November-December 2003.

• Китай: угрозы, риски, вызовы развитию, под. Ред. Василия Михеева, Глава 9 «Новая роль Китая в мировой политике», Москва, Центр Карнеги, 2005 с. 358-397.

Lecture 27 - Conclusions & Observations

Coit Blacker and Scott Sagan

Week 12: December 3-7

Final Exam