Chat Session with prof. Chip Blacker (October 2004)

Kate : Welcome everyone to our chat with Prof. Blacker!

Subochev : Hi from Moscow !

Kate : As different schools join, please tell me what university you are from so I know who is here.

Kate: Hello Andrei! How are you?

Reshetova : Hey from Saratov !

alexeis : Good morning/evening everyone!

Subochev : I'm fine. Thanks, Kate. And you?

Kate : Fine, thanks Andrei... Welcome Saratov and Amur State !

KukharenkoN : Hello, everyone! Good morning, Russia . Good evening, America !

Zhao : Hi from Amsu

Dergun : Hello students!! I'm from AmSU

Merkulova : Hello from Yaroslavl

Ukhanova : Hello from rainy Petrozavodsk .

Golovchenko : Hey! I'm from AmSU

Kate : So far, I see that Moscow , Saratov , Blagoveshensk, and Petrozavodsk are here... anyone else?

Krasnoyartseva : Is here somewone from Cheljabinsk

Levchuk : Hello all, hello Pr. I am from SUSU.

Kate : Welcome Chelyabinsk !

Oskina : People, hi. Get a hot regards from the Far East

Golovchenko : I'm glad to have an opportunity to have a chat with all of YOU

Kate : Okay, let us begin since we only have one hour. Welcome Professor Blacker. We will start by taking a question from Amur State . Next will be Moscow , Petrozavodsk , Chelyabinsk , and then Saratov ...

Dergun : How are you?

Kate : Let's begin with Amur State .

Krasnoyartseva : Levchuk Hi!

KukharenkoN : Hello, Petrozavodsk . It's also raining here in Blago.

Ogoev : Hello everybody, I'm from NOSU

Kiselev : Greetings and regards from Yaroslavl

Kate : Please have your questions ready.... Welcome NOSU and Yaroslavl .... Let's begin with a question from Amur State .

Golovchenko : Professor Blaccker,What's your own relation to Russian nuclear strategy?

Blacker : I'm assuming you're asking what my view is of Russian nuclear strategy, yes?

KukharenkoN : Some information in IDL 101 is old due to recent international events ( Iraq , North Korea ). Will the course be updated next year?

Kiselev : Semenova. A very good morning, dear colleagues

Blacker : Let's stick for the moment with the first question

Blacker : Shall I respond to the question

Kate : Nikolai K - we will plan to update material. We can discuss this separately....

Golovchenko : Yes, you are right. I mean should we continue the reduction of NW arsenals?

Kate : Yes, please respond to the question as you posed it.

Blacker : Good question. Let me respond

Reshetova : Hey from Saratov !

Blacker : I think both the US and Russia continue to place too much of an emphasis on nuclear weapons in their strategies. The US does because of history and tradition; Russia does because of financial pressures. Would be better if both reduced their reliance on nuclear weapons, and I do support the reduction in arsenals -- both US and Russian.

Bashlak : Hellow,nice to have a chat with you!

Kate : Next question, from Moscow please.

Ukhanova : Hello from rainy Petrozavodsk .

Golovchenko : Do personally you approve the deploying of NMD

Subochev : How could you comment on a President Putin's recent statement that international terrorism is doing everything possible to prevent reelection of President Bush?

Dergun : Pr. Blacker, what is your attitude to USA 's deploing of NMD?

Levchuk : Hello all, hello Pr. I am from SUSU.

Lubchanskii : The USU guys are here and ready to chat. Hello.

Kate : Next question is from Moscow/Subochev, on Putin's statement.

Blacker : I do not. The greater danger is a weapons of mass destruction that is delivered by ship or truck. NMD would not be my highest priority.

Ogoev : Pr. Blacker, can i ask you what do you think about North Korea recent declaration?

Kate : Ogoev, please wait the turn of NOSU. We are currently answering a question from Moscow . I will let each university know when it is their turn. Thanks.

Subochev : Keep order, please!

Blacker : On the question of President Putin's remarks -- I don't know what to make of them. His remarks are being read here as some kind of endorsement of the president. I suspect it has more to do with domestic Russian politics than with trying to influence the campaign here.

Zaseev : Hello, everybody, here are NOSU students, sorry we are a bit late

Kate : Order is: Amur, Moscow , Petro, Chelyabinsk , Ekat, Saratov , NOSU, Tyumen , Yaroslavl , Yakutia.

Ukhanova : Hello, dear professor Blacker. In your opinion, is there a real threat of using small charge nuclear weapons today by the USA or any other state? Thank you.

Kate : NEXT QUESTION: Petrozavodsk

Plieva : Hello!Weare hAppy to welcome you here.

Blacker : On the issue of low-yield nuclear weapons, I think the threat is quite real. Any use of a nuclear weapon by a terrorist is likely to involve a "small" device. What we tend to forget is that "small nuclear" weapons have the capacity to kill thousands of people. As my physists friends say, there's no such thing as a little nuclear weapon. I agree. I also oppose the development of a new generation of nuclear weapons by the US .

Kate : NEXT QUESTION: Chelyabinsk

Levchuk : Professor , The problem of terrorism nowaday become very pressing do you agree that Russia , America and Europea should decide this problem not alone but together? Why do you think so? Thank you.

Krasnoyartseva : Professor Blacker we want to now more about the situation in Iraq . I mean your position about this situation. Do you agree that Iraq is so dagerous.

Kate : ONE question at a time: currently answering Levchuk.

Blacker : On the terrorist threat as a multinational challenge, I agree that we should work together. But it's hard to do than it souds. Sharing intelligence is difficult for countries to do. Mounting joint operations is also hard. But the real problem is what each of us means by "terrorism" or "terrorist." We don't have a common definition, though the UN is trying to generate one.

Kate : NEXT QUESTION: Ekaterinburg

Berenov : Mr Blacker, do you agree that the destiny of all loyal to the USA regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan would be the same as when the USSR troops left Afghanistan in 1989?

Blacker : On the regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq . Good question. It could be as you suggest, certainly for Iraq . I'm more optimistic about Afghanistan . The regimes will survive, I think, if and only if they enjoy broad popular support. As I said, that's possible in Afghanistan and it's too soon to tell in Iraq .

Kate : NEXT QUESTION: Saratov

Kurganova : Saratov : Pr. Blacker, are the US already deploying NMD now or it is still in plans and words?

Reshetova : Pr.Blacker,Is it possible for terrorist groups to get an access to the weapons of mass destruction? Is the government trying to defend against such hypothetical thread? Is it really a thread? Your personal opinion: What is the percentage of the possibility of NW's usage by terrorists or other countries in the 21st century?

Blacker : Another very good question. The real danger, it seems to me, is that terrorists obtain fissile material -- the stuff used to make the weapons -- rather than an existing device. And there is plenty of fissile material around. I worry about this issue a lot. I fear that a nuclear weapon will be used in anger some time this decade.

Kate : NEXT QUESTION: NOSU/Ogoev

Ogoev : Pr. Blacker, can i ask you what do you think about North Korea recent declaration?

Zaseev : Prof. Blacker, the immigration of representatives from Caucasus was limited. Some countries closed their borders for them after the Sept. 1-3 tragedy. Wjhat is your opinion on this problem?

Karavaeva : Mr Blacker don`t you think that America can accept Israel`s proposal and use anticipatory attack against Iran? Thank you

Kubalova : Hello! We are from NOSU. Pr.Blacker, last decade the USA created a “nuclear monopoly”. In your opinion which country will be able to compete with the USA in the nearest future? and why?

Kate : ONE question at a time. Currently answering: Ogoev

Blacker : Regarding North Korea: the Korean regime needs to keep all its options open at this point, which means threatening the US, Japan and South Korea, while at the same time underscoring or emphasizing -- to the Chinese side in particular -- their eagerness to find a diplomatic solution. They want binding security quarantees and economic assistance. The issue for them is how best to get the outcome they want.

Zaseev : Dear students, we should limit ourselves to one question at a time, thank you.

Kate : I dont' believe Tyumen is here. NEXT QUESTION: Yaroslavl .

Merkulova : Yaroslavl : Professor Blacker, how would you evaluate Russia 's recent policy in Chechnya ? Do you think the US government's approach to this issue can have considerable changes if Kerry becomes a president?

Blacker : On Chechnya . I know from my experience in the Clinton administration just how difficult this issue is . . .

Kiselev : Semenova( Yaroslavl ). Are the relations of enmity among states still relevant in International practice? Can you give examples, please ? Thank you.

Plieva : Professor Blacker, we want to know your thoughts about the events in Beslan.

Kate : One question at a time. Currently answering: Merkulova

Blacker : I do believe that the only way out is through a political settlement. The tough part has always been on whose terms? I don't think the problem of Chechen terrorist is manageable for Russia until some kind of agreement between the parties is struck. . .

Blacker : On a possible Kerry policy toward the conflict, I wouldn't expect much of a change. No one on the US side has any really good ideas. And, in the end, it's for Russia and Chechnya to resolve.

Kate : I don't believe Yakutia is here, so NEXT QUESTION: back to Amur State .

Dolinskiy : Pr. Blacker, how do you think, is it normal when one country attack another only in suspect of existing nuclear weapon?

Blacker : I don't ever think it's a "good" idea for one country to attack another. But there are conditions under which it is legitimate to use force. I would have gone after Saddam Hussein in 1991, at end of the first Gulf War, or in 1998, when he kicked out the UN inspectors. There was just cause, in my view, to take military action against Iraq . I had a problem with the timing of the war, as I think it undermined the effort to root out Al Qaeda.

Ukhanova : Hello, dear professor Blacker. In your opinion, is there a real threat of using small charge nuclear weapons today by the USA or any other state? Thank you.

Kate : Ukhanova, please wait your turn. NEXT QUESTION: Moscow

Blacker : I think I answered this question earlier.

Subochev : Moscow : What is Sen. Kerry's position on the NMD program? Does he believe the US need it? Is NMD an issue in a current presidential campaign?

Blacker : Senator Kerry has been careful to say as little about NMD as possible, out of fear of losing votes. Most Americans know very little about this issue, and opposing the deployments would open Kerry up to the charge that he's "weak" on military matters. The Senator's calculation on this must be, the less said the better. At least for now.

Nesterov : Mr Blacker, how do you think,NMD is a fight for global military market( the US Corporations such as Boeing,Lockheed Martin,Raython,Honeywell)? Thank you.

Kate : NEXT QUESTION: Petrozavodsk

Ukhanova : Dear professor Blacker, how do you think, is it possible to make some restrictions in the field of nuclear weapons (nonproliferation, reduction, etc.) to be the universal ones. If such ruls bound all states, would it be easier to provide national and international security and to detter not only states but also non-state actors from using NW ? Thank you.

Blacker : I think there is a commercial component to this. What impact it has on policy is difficult to assess. For many in this administration, missile defense is an article of faith, like bringing "democracy" to Iraq .

Kate : NEXT QUESTION: Chelyabinsk

Kate : Apologies. NEXT QUESTION: Ukhanova, followed by Chelyabinsk .

Blacker : On the universality of norms having to do with nuclear weapons, states act in their interests. Sometimes those interests coincide with international legal norms; sometimes they don't. I don't think having "better" international laws would make the world a safer place. I think being clear with one another about our interests -- yours and mine -- is a better way to proceed.

Kate : NEXT QUESTION: Chelyabinsk

Kate : If no question from Chelyabinsk , then NEXT QUESTION: Ekaterinburg

Lubchanskii : Mr. Blacker, I'm glad to have such an opportunity to talk to you a little bit. I have an opinion concerning Iraq and the United States of America . The war in Iraq was not for conquering the country but to make peace in it. It was a kind of necessity because Saddam was "playing" with the USA . That's not the principe of the United States to take under control somebody in compliance with cultural aspect. Can you agree with the statement and what do you think of the issue?

Blacker : I agree with your basic premise -- that US did not invade Iraq to conquer it and turn it into an American protectorate. I believe the president was motivated to invade because he saw Saddam Hussein as a roadblock to a regional settlement in the Middle East . . .

Kate : NEXT QUESTION: Saratov

Kurganova : Saratov (Volkov): Pr. Blacker, what do common citizens of the US think about deploing NMD? Are they happy about such a possibility?

Reshetova : Pr.Blacker, How does the American reconnaissance work to inform the government and nuclear scientists about the pioneering decoys in other countries-members of the nuclear club? Is it effective? Is reconnaissance the basic source of information about NW achievements of other nuclear states?

Blacker : Having said that, I think it's very dangerous to take it upon oneself to change another country's internal political order. And I would argue that we're now seeing the results.

Kate : FIRST answering question for Lubchanski, then answering Kurganova.

Blacker : With respect to NMD: as I said earlier, the average American does not think much about such things, and has, at best, a very limited command of the subject.

Kate : NEXT QUESTION: NOSU

Kubalova : Hello! We are from NOSU. Pr.Blacker, last decade the USA created a “nuclear monopoly”. In your opinion which country will be able to compete with the USA in the nearest future? and why? Thank you.

Zaseev : Prof. Blacker, a question from NOSU students: The Arabic world today becomes more powerful. Is it possible that there will appear some unions (Arabic coalitions) to respond to foreign policy of the USA . What will be the behaviour of the USA then?

Plieva : NOSU:Pr. Blacker, is the USA going to undertake any measures against international terrorism and Al Qaeda?

Blacker : let me try to answer both questions from NOSU

Kate : ONE question at a time. Currently answering Zaseev.

Nesterov : Mr Blacker, now do you think,the deployment of NMD will help to US solve conflict between China and Taiwan in interests of the USA ? Thank you.

Zaseev : Kate, Prof. Blacker, is it possible for professor to choose the question he finds interesting? Cuase we have too many I guess

Kate : Yes, the professor at each univesity should prioritize the questions and only ONE should be posed at a time.

Blacker : The country best poised to challenge American power in the decades to come is China . But the Chinese need to complete the transition from a developing to a fully developed country, and that is both uncertain and years in the future, in any event. . .

Karavaeva : Mr Blacker don`t you think that America can accept Israel`s proposal and use anticipatory attack against Iran? Thank you

Blacker : On the Arab world. I don't think the problem is that the Arab world is becoming more powerful. Quite the reverse. It's relatively powerless in terms of the West, which is why we're seeing the decline into terrorism.

Kate : NEXT QUESTION: Yaroslavl .

Ogoev : Pr. Blacker, can i ask you what do you think about North Korea recent declaration?

Kiselev : Semenova ( Yaroslavl ). Are relations of enmity among states still relevant in International practice? Can you give examples, please. Thank you in advance.

Golovchenko : I'm sorry, but AmSU should have lessons, thus have a good chat wihtout us

Kate : Ogoev, It is not the turn of NOSU. We are answering Yaroslavl .

Kate : Goodbye AmSU. Thanks for particfipating.

Blacker : The US could certainly attack Iran , using whatever pretext it wanted. But it would be stupid to do so. The real challenge for the US and others is to figure out how to dissuade the Iranians from pursuing nuclear weapons. I don't think it's possible, in fact; but that is the policy challenge.

Kate : Currently answering Semenova.

Blacker : Thanks, Kate. And I think this will have to be the last question. . .

Kate : Thank you friends for an interesting chat. We have made two rounds of the universities. Before we end the chat, I would like to ask Prof. Blacker if he has any questions for all of you.

Ukhanova : Thank you, dear professor Blacker. Thank you, dear Kate. Thank you dear colleagues.

Blacker : Unfortunately, as long as there are states -- countries -- there will be disagreements, some of which will eventuate in war. Interests among countries sometimes overlap, but sometimes not. The best we can do is reduce the incidence and severity of state-to-state violence when it occurs, and hope that we learn from our mistakes. Thank you all very much. It's been a pleasure being with you this evening (morning).

KukharenkoN : Thank you, Prof. Blacker for sincere answers to thorny questions. Thank you, Kate for patient managing the chat flow. Good buy!

Subochev : Thank you very much!

Kate : THank you for participating everyone! Have a pleasant day.

Kurganova : Thank you. It was a pleasure to chat with you all. Good bye!

Kiselev : Thnaks a lot for the chat and generous sharing of your ideas

Berenov : Thank you, Mr Blacker for answers.

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